MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1012

ACUS11 KWNS 101531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101531
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-101730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST GA INTO UPSTATE/PIEDMONT SC AND NC
PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101531Z - 101730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON
FROM FAR NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN/PIEDMONT OF SC AND THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASIDE FROM SOME
TORNADO RISK. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/INCIPIENT TSTMS HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
INCREASE WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE
INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM NORTH GA INTO UPSTATE SC/WEST-CENTRAL NC.
FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO GENERALLY INCREASE
OVER THE REGION THE REMINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND KY/TN. THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY EXISTING CLOUD
COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED CORRIDORS OF EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CINH IS VERY MINIMAL /ADJUSTED REGIONAL 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/ AND MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/POCKETS OF LOCALLY
STRONGER HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPES TO REACH OR EXCEED 500 J/KG
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/.

AS UPDRAFTS/STORMS MATURE COINCIDENT WITH MORE
DESTABILIZATION...WELL-ORGANIZED/MAINLY LINEAR STRUCTURES INCLUDING
POSSIBLE SMALL BOWS/LEWPS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...ALTHOUGH
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE CONCERN...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY EXIST WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO
RISK AS WELL.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 33598292 34238349 34728300 36098029 35827782 33547978
33598292

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