MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1118

ACUS11 KWNS 181803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181802
SCZ000-GAZ000-181930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181802Z - 181930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE WITH AN
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH GA AREA...INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...TOWARD
THE CHARLESTON SC AREA...DURING THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME. WHILE IT IS
NOT CERTAIN THAT THE THREAT WILL RISE TO A LEVEL THAT WILL
NECESSITATE A WW...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR A SMALL DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW
EAST NORTHEAST OF DUBLIN GA IS UNCLEAR. BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF IT IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...AND
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING...WITH SIZABLE CAPE ALSO
DEVELOPING AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
EVOLVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF MODEST WESTERLY MEAN
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /AROUND 30 KT/ NOW DEVELOPING TO THE
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
GENERALLY WEAK...WIND PROFILES ARE ALLOWING FOR FRONT TO REAR
HIGH-LEVEL SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW...WITH ANVIL LEVEL PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A STRENGTHENING SMALL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. AS THIS
OCCURS...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ASSOCIATED REAR
INFLOW JET COULD FORM AND STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT STRONG
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON 32788235 33428119 33497932 32507922 31988085 31958188
32238236 32788235

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