MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1119

ACUS11 KWNS 181805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181804
INZ000-ILZ000-181930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL THROUGH SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181804Z - 181930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL
IL AND SWRN IND BY 19Z. STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OH THROUGH
SRN IND AND CNTRL IL. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND 6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL IL WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND THE 12Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES VERY LITTLE CAP REMAINING.
MOREOVER...MID LEVEL ASCENT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
TOWARD CNTRL IL WILL FURTHER AID THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST
SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40329024 40218902 39158660 38538700 39248952 39909045
40329024

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