MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1140

ACUS11 KWNS 201950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201950
TXZ000-NMZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201950Z - 202045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A HOT/DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX. WITH
MLCAPES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND MODEST LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...EXPECT ISOLATED STRONGER TSTMS TO POSE A SVR
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE VERY LOW SUB-CLOUD RH VALUES.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED THAT A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 06/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31820587 31260539 31110416 31350313 32070279 33380286
34510288 34790352 34740384 33950501 32730582 31990599
31820587

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