MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1141

ACUS11 KWNS 201951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201950
NDZ000-SDZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL ND THROUGH NCNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 201950Z - 202045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER SCNTRL ND AND
POSSIBLY INTO NCNTRL SD BY 22Z. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH INITIAL
STORMS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS IT
DEVELOPS EWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEAK SFC LOW NEAR MCINTOSH
ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER EWD ACROSS SRN ND AND CNTRL MN. A COLD FRONT
AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN SD.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING NEAR AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE
80S. SOME CAP LIKELY STILL EXISTS BASED ON THE CHARACTER OF LOW
CLOUDS OVER SRN ND...AND 12Z RAOB FROM BISMARK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S ARE NEEDED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. FURTHER DIABATIC WARMING AND PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE SURFACE
BASED STORM INITIATION OVER SCNTRL ND WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WINDS ARE MODEST WITHIN THE LOWEST 2 KM...BUT 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS INITIAL STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY
SMALL...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY WITH
ANY STORM INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45439861 45290020 46100103 46860209 47130005 46649829
46059791 45439861

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