DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141731
SWODY2
SPC AC 141729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. ALONG WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER
WRN MT WILL MOVE SEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED FROM THE GULF
COASTAL STATES WWD INTO SRN TX. FARTHER NORTH A LEE LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN MT SEWD THROUGH ERN CO/WRN KS. A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN
NEB/NRN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AREA...

SELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS IN GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS NRN TX AND SRN OK...AND AT LEAST LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY ADVECT NWWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS EAST OF LEE TROUGH AXIS
AND BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. DIABATIC WARMING
WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX...WRN/CNTRL OK THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS
AND NEB. AXIS OF CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF AND EAST OF LEE-LOW AND
DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN NEB
INTO NWRN KS. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEERING TO NNWLY. ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS THEY DEVELOP SWD INTO THE EVENING. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...

AHEAD OF A LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER TOUGH...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SLOW-MOVING/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT MAY ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEAR-COASTAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT /AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES/ WILL
OCCUR. A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
COULD MATERIALIZE NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF FL
PANHANDLE INTO AL/GA.

..DIAL.. 08/14/2013

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