MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1715

ACUS11 KWNS 141715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141715
LAZ000-TXZ000-141945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN TX AND WRN/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141715Z - 141945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBS REVEAL A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL AL/MS
WWD INTO E-CNTRL TX. THE 12Z RAOBS AT LCH AND LIX INDICATE DEEP
MOIST-NEUTRAL PROFILES S OF THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE INHIBITION AND
AMPLE PW -- VALUES OVER 2.2 INCHES. DIABATIC SFC HEATING OWING TO
AREAS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE -- PER VIS IMAGERY -- IS FOSTERING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE INTERSECTING AREA
/1/ TO THE S OF THE FRONT... AND /2/ TO THE SW OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
INDUCED FROM THETA-E DEFICITS ACCOMPANYING PERSISTENT
CONVECTION/LACKING INSOLATION FROM CNTRL LA TO NEAR AND N OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS.

CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE MCD AREA...COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY ENSUE AMIDST A
FAIRLY QUIESCENT BACKGROUND SFC PRESSURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK FLOW PER LCH/LIX VWP DATA. WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE DISORGANIZED...A MORE WIDESPREAD
SVR THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS OWING TO ABUNDANT
WATER LOADING.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29669315 29589461 30729483 31559437 31389341 29979124
29348906 28838942 28869036 29309153 29669315

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