DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221708
SWODY2
SPC AC 221706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PROBABLE ALONG THE FRONT
AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
THAT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID
AFTERNOON PARTIALLY DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
AS MULTICELLS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.


...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES ON
FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL
DAKOTAS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS KEEP CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED DUE TO
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE ALONG A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO WRN NEB. THE MODER
EAT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL MT...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE PROBABLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT 21Z FRIDAY
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CELLS INTENSIFY DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/22/2013

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