MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1752

ACUS11 KWNS 221710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221710
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-221945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...PORTIONS OF NRN INDIANA AND
NWRN OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221710Z - 221945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...ASCENT PRECEDING AN MCV THAT WAS ENHANCED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES
SUPPORTING A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND THEN TRACK EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODERATE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW --
AROUND 50 KT PER GRR VWP DATA -- SUPPORTING EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION...THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
AROUND 20-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR MAINTENANCE OF A ROBUST...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
INLAND INSOLATION IS ALSO BEING SUPPRESSED BY OPAQUE MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS BEING TRANSPORTED DOWNSTREAM BY ONGOING CONVECTION.
REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE
12Z DTX RAOB. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH ENHANCED/LOCALIZED COLD POOL SURGES. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT A WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SVR-WIND THREAT WOULD EVOLVE...THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43068610 43058426 42628310 42158313 41518371 41338462
41518575 41968652 43068610

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