DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261732
SWODY2
SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WHILE TWO TROUGHS -- ONE OFF THE W COAST AND A SECOND
OVER ERN CANADA AND WRN ATLANTIC -- AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND
ERN U.S. RESPECTIVELY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE NERN AND N CENTRAL U.S. -- SNAKING FROM SERN
NEW ENGLAND WWD/WNWWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FROM
THERE...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW SWD PROGRESS INTO
IA AND NEB WITH TIME...WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
REGION. THIS FRONT -- PARTICULARLY THE PORTION LYING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION -- WILL FOCUS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND AN
ASSOCIATED ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO BE CROSSING PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-END/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARD THE
MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY AREA...WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
NRN/NERN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES
CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AND SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATER
SEVERE RISK HOWEVER APPEARS TO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER
MI/OH VICINITY DESTABILIZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
REDEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION IN THIS
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT -- WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING ROUGHLY 30 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH CLUSTERS OF
SEWD-MOVING STORMS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 08/26/2013

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