MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1776

ACUS11 KWNS 261735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261734
NYZ000-262000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT LAKE ONTARIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261734Z - 262000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO MAY
POSE AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS WRN NY AND ADJACENT LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ORGANIZING SQUALL
LINE -- POSSIBLY AIDED BY A LONGER-LIVED MCV -- ADVANCING EWD/ESEWD
OVER SRN ONTARIO. WITH THE SRN-MOST PART OF THIS ACTIVITY EXHIBITING
A FORWARD SPEED AROUND 50 KT...LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD SUGGEST
STORMS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR AND N OF
BUFFALO AROUND 1800-1830Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF WRN NY AND ADJACENT LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS
AREAS OF FILTERED SUNSHINE SUPPORTING SOME DESTABILIZATION AS
DIABATIC SFC HEATING OCCURS AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S. AND...WITH BUF/BGM VWP SAMPLING AROUND 20-40 KT OF FLOW IN THE
2-6-KM-AGL LAYER...VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF HORIZONTAL MOMENTUM WILL BE
ENHANCED AMIDST MARGINAL BUOYANCY AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR TO
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY
LIMITED LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVENT
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43197906 43497903 43687862 43777752 43467581 42937509
42377519 42137601 42257728 42587824 43197906

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