MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1695

ACUS11 KWNS 112008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112008
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/SWRN-CENTRAL NEB INCLUDING THE SRN NEB
PANHANDLE/NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112008Z - 112145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GREATER TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON /NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING/ OVER PARTS OF NERN CO
AND CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN NEB INTO PART OF THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE.
ACTIVITY THAT FORMS OVER NERN CO SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN KS BETWEEN
21-23Z. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
THE STRONGER CORES.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATED GREATER CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT INVOF SEVERAL WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN 1/ EAST CENTRAL CO...2/ ALONG A
FRONT MOVING SWD AND EXTENDING GENERALLY E-W NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND 3/ FROM KLBF SWWD INTO FAR NERN CO. THE AIR MASS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
25-30 KT WILL TEND TO FAVOR MULTICELLS AS THE PRIMARY STORM MODE.
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
BULK SHEAR RESULTING IN PRIMARILY THREATS FOR HAIL AND STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 12Z 4 KM NSSL-WRF
SUGGESTED UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK EWD FROM EAST
CENTRAL-NERN CO INTO NWRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

..PETERS/WEISS.. 08/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40400326 41950336 41910113 41689944 41969698 41189711
40279797 39789861 39429931 39210052 39180155 39150235
39260334 40400326

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