MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1696

ACUS11 KWNS 112038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112037
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-112130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...PORTIONS OF WRN SD...ERN WY...AND NRN NEB
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112037Z - 112130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD SVR TSTMS VCTY OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A SVR THREAT WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS SERN
MT AND ERN WY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY
THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS
PSBL.

DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF WRN SD
JUST EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N-CENTRAL MT SEWD
INTO NRN NEB. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND GENLY 30-35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXIST ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND DIURNAL HEATING HAS LARGELY REMOVED CINH WITHIN THIS
AXIS. A SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN WY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS PROBABLE FROM SERN MT INTO ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE THRU THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WHILE A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CURRENTLY...THE ISOLATED NATURE AND
SLOW CELL MOVEMENT CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NEED FOR A WW.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED BY LATE AFTN.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 08/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON 43710475 44030488 45440586 45760561 45840487 45330382
43980248 43650232 43270212 42730200 42420240 42390319
42600433 42970449 43350453 43710475

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.