MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1716

ACUS11 KWNS 141818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141818
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AL...SRN GA...FAR SRN
SC...NRN/CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141818Z - 142045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...INSOLATION IN MANY AREAS S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL AL TO CNTRL GA AND SRN SC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
DIABATIC SFC HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES. AND...WITH RICH DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING PW VALUES FROM
1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES PER GPS DATA AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS
THE REGION PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INHIBITION REMAINING...PULSE/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BLOSSOM FROM AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
FIELD PER VIS IMAGERY...AND BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. INLAND-ADVANCING SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY FOCUS
CORRIDORS OF GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WHILE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE AIDED BY WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES...WEAK MID-LEVEL LASE RATES WILL LARGELY LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY...AND DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LACKING WITHOUT THE
INFLUENCE OF A MORE SALIENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD YIELD
ONLY LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST. FURTHERMORE...A
QUIESCENT HEIGHT/FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
WILL MINIMIZE DEEP SHEAR -- AS EVIDENT IN VWP DATA. AS SUCH...STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 29718515 30308620 30488713 31188698 31978589 32238449
32608235 32648052 32298046 31938088 31028138 29878125
28768096 27978114 27948226 29228275 29778362 29718515

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