MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1717

ACUS11 KWNS 141851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141850
TXZ000-142015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141850Z - 142015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX AS
CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. IF THE STORMS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED
CLUSTER...WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM NORTH OF DEL RIO EWD TO NEAR THE AUSTIN AND COLLEGE
STATION AREAS. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S F WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F. THIS IS
CREATING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES WHICH COMBINED
WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE
CONVECTION PULSE IN NATURE SUGGESTING ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30249545 30809506 31099515 31239542 31589676 31769755
31669820 31159956 30900012 30560130 30260166 29960167
29640149 29410075 29589920 29719833 29739732 29709648
29829591 30249545

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