DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071606
SWODY1
SPC AC 071604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT MON OCT 07 2013

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...NORTHEAST STATES...
A FORCED LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION IS TRACKING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NY/PA AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK
AHEAD OF THE STORMS DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
HEATING...DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL FURTHER
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO APPEARS
CONDUCIVE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED QLCS TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WEAKENING WITH TIME
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

..HART/COHEN.. 10/07/2013

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