MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952

ACUS11 KWNS 071540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071539
VTZ000-NYZ000-071815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT MON OCT 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND NRN VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071539Z - 071815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE DMGG WIND POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF
A WW.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A N/S-ORIENTED STRONGLY
FORCED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY...RECENTLY CROSSING FORT DRUM. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY FEATURES VERY LITTLE BUOYANCY -- I.E. SBCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 300 J/KG OR LESS. REGARDLESS...BURLINGTON VWP DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-2-KM-AGL LAYER THAT ALSO
GLANCES THE TOP OF THE MECHANICALLY-FORCED PBL. THIS COULD BE
MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS DMGG WIND GUSTS OWING TO MECHANICAL MIXING
AND CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN LINE-EMBEDDED ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFTS AS CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE POCKETS
OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED SFC HEATING LOCALLY STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION ENTERING WRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA N
OF TORNADO WATCH 543 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS...IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD BUILD NE FROM SRN NY AND ERN PA
AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE MCD AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/HART.. 10/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON 44537556 44927499 44987302 44847190 43957224 43557261
43507308 43807335 43827372 43847400 44137434 44137536
44537556

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