ACUS11 KWNS 071437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071436
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-071630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT MON OCT 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NY/NJ/ERN PA/DE/ERN MD/ERN VA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 543...
VALID 071436Z - 071630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 543 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
CONTINUES WITH A RAPIDLY MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE CROSSING NY/PA/MD/VA
ATTM.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX LINE OF CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM ERN LK ONTARIO SWD INTO CENTRAL NC...ADVANCING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MEAGER INSTABILITY AT BEST BUT VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THE CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR A STRONG
COLD FRONT -- MOVING QUICKLY EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
ENERGETIC/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED NEAR THE
SURFACE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50 TO 60 KT FLOW IN THE 850 TO 500
MB LAYER...EXPECT THE FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE MARCHING
EWD -- ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC VORTICITY -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN
CHAOTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD NEAR ONGOING/FAST-MOVING CONVECTION --
MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADIC SPIN-UPS WHICH WOULD
LOCALLY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE.
..GOSS.. 10/07/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 43947583 43577477 42247430 40997407 39217472 38067629
37807800 38037818 38547779 39027722 39997665 40717693
42127683 43267644 43947583
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