DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140558
SWODY2
SPC AC 140556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
WRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX DROPS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM IA SWWD THROUGH WRN TX WILL
ADVANCE SEWD DURING THE PERIOD...LIKELY APPROACHING THE SERN TX
COAST BY 12Z WED. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

...CNTRL THROUGH SWRN TX AREA...

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WITHIN PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM NRN TX THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN TX WARM SECTOR
BENEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
CLOUD BREAKS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING
OF THE SFC LAYER WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. MODEST SWLY
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE IN THE TX PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AOB 35 KT. MULTICELL STORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT FROM SWRN
THROUGH CNTRL TX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF DIABATIC WARMING...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FLOW FROM THE SFC-600 MB
LAYER...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS VERY MARGINAL.

...MIDWEST THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS
FAR NORTH AS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEAK LAPSE
RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HAVE
INTRODUCED A 5% PROBABILITY FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A STRONG
WIND GUST OR TWO SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT
LOW-TOPPED SFC BASED CONVECTION BOTH IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF
VORT MAX ACROSS ERN WI AND ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER SRN MI
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.