DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140734
SWODY3
SPC AC 140732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD POSITIVE TILT
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN AREA EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
NERN STATES AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS REGION. A SFC LOW
ATTENDING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NEWD
INTO SERN CANADA WITH TRAILING FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND NERN STATES. SRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN
GULF.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH NERN STATES...

AXIS OF MODEST /MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS/ LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER....POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. AXIS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM PA NWD INTO CNTRL NY WHERE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE VERY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LIMIT ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2013

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