DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260602
SWODY2
SPC AC 260600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
A QUASI-ZONAL/SPLIT LARGE-SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY. A WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
MEANWHILE...A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET WILL DIG
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN.

THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/UPPER TX COAST INTO LA/ADJACENT AR.
THIS WILL BE TIED TO WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEAST-MOVING/WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF A WEAKENING/STALLING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LARGE-SCALE/MASS FIELD TRENDS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY...NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...INCLUDING OK/NORTH TX WITHIN AN
ELEVATED MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...TSTM PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.

..GUYER.. 10/26/2013

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