DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260729
SWODY3
SPC AC 260727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO MONDAY...NOTABLY HIGHLIGHTED BY AN
AMPLIFYING/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG POLAR
JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST STATES. TO THE EAST...GRADUAL
HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH A BELT
OF MODERATELY STRONG/CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES...PERSISTENT MOIST
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE OZARKS/LOWER
MO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. BY AFTERNOON...SEASONALLY MOIST UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INCREASINGLY
COMMON WITH A WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SHARPENING
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO BE TO THE
EAST OF A SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/SHARPEN ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST A LOW OR CONDITIONAL-TYPE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY EXIST MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE
AND NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SUCH DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 45+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOMEWHAT
SUBTLE LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES AND SOME LINGERING GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...THE EXACT EXTENT/LIKELIHOOD OF
SUCH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS
QUESTIONABLE. OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE FOR STORMS TO NOCTURNALLY
INCREASE MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND THE ADJACENT
MO VALLEY ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE HAIL RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MONDAY
NIGHT.

OVERALL...GIVEN SOME LARGE-SCALE UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO THE
DIGGING/POTENTIALLY DELAYED NATURE OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES
TROUGH...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
AREAS SUCH AS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK INTO PARTS OF KS
WILL BE SUBSEQUENTLY REEVALUATED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK.

..GUYER.. 10/26/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.