DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091710
SWODY2
SPC AC 091709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT WED OCT 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH ACROSS AZ THEN EJECT NEWD INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. STRONG 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 120-150M...WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX
TRANSLATES INTO THIS REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE LEE TROUGH
WILL INTENSIFY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEATING CYCLE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN NM INTO ERN CO BY MID
AFTERNOON.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN REGARDING THE PROSPECT FOR MEANINGFUL
CAPE...SFC DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE INITIATING REGION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 80F ACROSS ERN CO...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE BREACHED BY 20Z AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED/FORCED ENVIRONMENT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MATURE INTO A HIGH BASED SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN KS/NEB DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHERE A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESIDE...LOWER 50S. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS FORCED LINE OF STORMS UNTIL CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE
STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
QUICKLY END AS CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER EAST OF 100 LON.

..DARROW.. 10/09/2013

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