DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090603
SWODY3
SPC AC 090602

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED OCT 09 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH STRONG LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
TO THE S...A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY...FROM IA
SWWD INTO WRN OK.

...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...VERTICALLY
STACKED BENEATH THE COMPACT UPPER LOW. E OF THE LOW
TRACK...RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WILL EXIST BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT...AND LOW LCLS...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR A WEAK TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY OVER ERN ND AND NWRN MN.

...ERN KS...NERN OK...NWRN MO...IA...
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
CNTRL U.S. AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES RAPIDLY NWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND A DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S F. CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK...BUT DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD HELP ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM FROM OK INTO IA.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLS THAT
FORM...MOSTLY LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
ERN KS AND NWRN MO.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ACROSS OK AS A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS HIGHER THETA-E AIR
NEWD...ACTUALLY INCREASING INSTABILITY LEVELS INTO SAT MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 10/09/2013

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