DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090843
SWOD48
SPC AC 090843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT WED OCT 09 2013

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN
THE D4-8 PERIOD. CONSENSUS ON SAT/D4 IS FOR A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO
MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK FRONT GENERALLY ACROSS MO/KS/OK. S OF
THIS FRONT...MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL
STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL. POTENTIAL IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO.

A SIMILAR SETUP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON SUN/D5. WITH A
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS TX INTO SRN OK AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT
REDUCING CAPPING...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ERUPT...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER PARTS OF TX.

THEN...MODELS DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE D6-D7 TIME FRAME. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN THE OTHER MREF MEMBERS...WHICH ARE
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A MORE
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND SURGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE
FASTER OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A MORE CLASSIC SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME.

..JEWELL.. 10/09/2013

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