DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140851
SWOD48
SPC AC 140851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A BROAD POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL U.S. DAY 4-5 AND PERSIST IN
SOME FORM OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 4-8
PERIOD. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH
S TX INTO THE WRN GULF COASTAL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR LATER DAY 5
/FRIDAY/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TIME MAY EXIST FOR A MORE ROBUST RETURN OF
MOISTURE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST. THEREFORE...ANY
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BE CONDUCIVE TO OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF
AND STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND FOR MOST OF THE 4-8 PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2013

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