MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1968

ACUS11 KWNS 140942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140941
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-141145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO...FAR WRN KS...AND SWRN-WEST
CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 140941Z - 141145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD THROUGH THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO...FAR WRN KS AND SWRN TO WEST-CENTRAL NEB.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE STORMS...AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING LIGHTNING DATA AND
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO AREAS OF PERSISTENT TSTM
ACTIVITY...1/ OVER FAR NERN NM INTO SERN CO...AND 2/ INVOF THE NERN
CO/NEB BORDER...WITH EACH AREA TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
MEAN WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KT. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SSWLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AOA 2-3 KM AGL PER PUB WSR-88D ATTENDANT TO THE
TROUGH...AND A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO WEST
CENTRAL NEB WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION. DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT INTO ERN
CO/WRN KS...WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS/SHORT BOWS. ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL STORM ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 10/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37020418 38020324 39660266 41010225 41730175 41800071
40690088 39450106 37970189 37020293 37020418

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