DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190832
SWODY3
SPC AC 190830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DETACHES FROM THE NRN STREAM AND EVOLVES INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SFC A POLAR FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX.

...SRN PLAINS AREA...

SLY WINDS IN WAKE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS THROUGH TX WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE AS FAR
NORTH AS OK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
WITHIN THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON. MUCAPE MAY RANGE FROM 500-1000
J/KG FROM SWRN TO NWRN TX /WHERE ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES
MAY OVERTAKE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS AND WHERE SOME DIABATIC
WARMING MAY OCCUR/ TO AOB 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH INTO OK. A BELT OF
50 KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY ACROSS WRN TX INTO
OK RESULTING IN 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN OK AND THEN
SWD INTO NWRN TX DURING THE EVENING. ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW ALOFT
WITH RESPECT TO THE MOTION OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATING
ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE UNDERCUT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL... ESPECIALLY FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN
OK WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST.

..DIAL.. 11/19/2013

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