DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 191001
SWOD48
SPC AC 191000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2013

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAYS 4-6...ECMWF...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
ERN U.S. WHILE A CUTOFF LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN VICINITY OF THE
BAJA AREA. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A POLAR
FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH TX DAY 4 AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE SERN STATES DAY 5. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL RETURN THROUGH TX
FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...ONLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT INTO TX AS
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS DOWNSTREAM FROM EVOLVING SWRN U.S. UPPER
LOW. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXPECTED MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW WITH THIS ANA-FRONTAL PATTERN.

DAYS 7-8...THOUGH DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH...TIMING...AND
EJECTION PATH OF SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF
COASTAL REGION. WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS DAYS 7-8...THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL
UPON SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED TIME FOR BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY IN
WAKE OF PRIOR CP AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE GULF.

..DIAL.. 11/19/2013

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