ACUS01 KWNS 010526
SWODY1
SPC AC 010524
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2013
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ARKLATEX TO NWRN AL...
LATE EVENING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST BY LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ADVANCE QUICKLY TO
A POSITION NEAR MKC-OKC-LBB BY 02/00Z...THEN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE LAPSE RATES SUCH THAT PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 1KM AGL COULD
FREELY CONVECT AS MID LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS. WHILE SFC-BASED
PARCELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE...FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
TRAJECTORIES SHOULD ALLOW MODIFIED MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE MUCAPE...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED FLOW REGIME. ISOLATED
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 02/06Z THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP ESEWD
INTO MS/NWRN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNRISE MONDAY.
..DARROW/DIAL.. 12/01/2013
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment