ACUS03 KWNS 010644
SWODY3
SPC AC 010643
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CST SUN DEC 01 2013
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
LOW PREDICTABILITY EXISTS WITH DICHOTOMOUS DEPICTIONS BETWEEN
GFS/NAM AND NON-NCEP GUIDANCE OVER THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH INTO THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. EVEN WITH WPC/SPC PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE
CONSISTENT NON-NCEP SIMULATIONS...A PREDOMINANTLY SWLY FLOW REGIME
AT 850 MB SHOULD EXIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS. GIVEN BELOW-NORMAL PW VALUES CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH MINIMAL IF
ANY BUOYANCY. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH WAA ACROSS
THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS EARLY WED...OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM PROBABILITIES AOA 10 PERCENT ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 12/01/2013
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