DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010925
SWOD48
SPC AC 010925

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST SUN DEC 01 2013

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THAT WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE D3 OUTLOOK
CONTINUES INTO THE D4-8 PERIOD WITH POOR RUN-TO-RUN EVOLUTION OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ANCHORED FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE WRN CONUS. STILL...CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN
CYCLOGENESIS INVOF UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS JAMES BAY ON D4-5. A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SEWD AND INTERCEPT A
MODIFYING WARM SECTOR FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST. THE
CHARACTER OF THIS WARM SECTOR SHOULD LARGELY BE WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...OWING TO BELOW-NORMAL PW VALUES OVER THE GULF AT PRESENT
AND POSITIVE-TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LIMITING
JUXTAPOSITION WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH CYCLOGENESIS
BECOMING WELL-DIVORCED FROM THIS TYPE OF WARM SECTOR AND A RATHER
EXTENSIVE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...SETUP APPEARS ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...PEAKING AROUND D5.

..GRAMS.. 12/01/2013

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