DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130531
SWODY1
SPC AC 130529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LOWER-LATITUDE UPPER LOW INITIALLY POSITIONED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH WITH EWD
PROGRESSION...REACHING THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX LATE FRI NIGHT AND
THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SAT. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SEWD. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD
OUT OF THE PAC NW TOWARDS THE SRN ROCKIES...BUT A VERY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

...PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX...
SLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE S-CNTRL CONUS AS A SFC
ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND A LEE SFC
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR WILL OCCUR ACROSS E TX AND LA...BUT INLAND PROGRESSION WILL BE
LIMITED BY A COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED
ELEVATED TSTMS /WITH LIFTED PARCEL LEVELS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER/
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE COLDER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHT FALLS
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERSECT WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL /E.G.
LESS THAN 400 J/KG MUCAPE/...LIMITING ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

..ROGERS/MOSIER.. 12/13/2013

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