ACUS02 KWNS 050905
SWODY2
SPC AC 050904
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST THU DEC 05 2013
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE BASE OF A LARGER
SCALE POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WRN/SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO
DE-AMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ONLY GRADUAL/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL SEPARATE A MARITIME TROPICAL
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM A MUCH COLDER
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS DOMINATING MOST OF THE REST OF THE NATION.
SIMILAR TO THE DAY 1 PERIOD...A CORRIDOR OF LOW PROBABILITY BUT
NON-ZERO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEFINES THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM DELTA REGION NEWD TO NRN AL.
...MS DELTA INTO CNTRL/NERN AL...
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
THE STALLED FRONT AND A MODEST WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE
GULF/SERN LA TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S F. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MLCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 800-1200 J/KG COINCIDENT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT
FRONTAL WAVES DURING THE DAY. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50KT
AMIDST THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY CORRIDOR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS AT THIS TIME
APPEAR TO BE THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ACROSS
THE REGION AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMITING STORM UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE.
..CARBIN.. 12/05/2013
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