DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050903
SWOD48
SPC AC 050902

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST THU DEC 05 2013

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF THE
NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO EJECT ENEWD FROM LARGER SCALE
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH DOMINATING THE WRN AND CNTRL CONUS. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A RETREATING
WARM FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO MIDWEST ON D4/SUNDAY. THE
RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH D5/MONDAY AS A REINFORCING MASS OF COLDER AIR SPREADS ESEWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTH THROUGH D6/TUESDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL
FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MASS ADJUSTMENTS OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG IMPULSE TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
WEAK TO MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH...SUFFICIENT LIFT
WITHIN THE NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...MOST LIKELY DUE TO POOR QUALITY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSIONS.

..CARBIN.. 12/05/2013

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