ACUS03 KWNS 180832
SWODY3
SPC AC 180830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST WED DEC 18 2013
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD DEPICTING AN UPPER
LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO/AZ DURING THE DAY WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NM INTO N CNTRL MEXICO BY 12Z SAT. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CNTRL TX NEWD ACROSS
AR BY 00Z...AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. S OF THIS
FRONT...SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL FLOW NWD WITH MID
60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE FRONT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS W TX...A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AIDING IN LIFT ALONG THE
N OF THE FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...CNTRL TX...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM SW TX EWD INTO CNTRL TX
AND AR ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ELEVATED ABOVE A COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS...BUT WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. WITH RAPID COOLING
ALOFT OVER SWRN TX...SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR...BUT INSTABILITY LEVELS
APPEAR MARGINAL FOR SEVERE NOCTURNAL ELEVATED HAIL AT THIS TIME.
TO THE E...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF ERN TX
INTO THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
PRONOUNCED CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
..JEWELL.. 12/18/2013
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