DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 181000
SWOD48
SPC AC 181000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST WED DEC 18 2013

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...TX...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEY ON SAT/D4...
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 AS THE SWRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTS
RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/WAVE ALONG THE
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. S OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND N OF A STATIONARY
FRONT EARLY ON SAT/D4...FROM WRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO SERN MO...WHERE STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL EXIST
COURTESY OF A 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. RAPID COOLING ALOFT...A
VEER/BACK SIGNAL IN THE WIND PROFILE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...A
RATHER MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS A SEMI-CAPPED WARM
SECTOR SUGGEST THAT A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS WILL BE LIKELY...CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT...OR THE NRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

...SUN/D5 AND BEYOND...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOSS OF AMPLITUDE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WITH
ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRAIL APPROXIMATELY FROM IND/OH SWWD ACROSS
TN/AL/MS WITH SOME ONGOING THREAT. GIVEN TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS
THE LOSS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N...WILL DEFER ANY SEVERE
AREAS TO LATER OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE ACROSS
ERN MS/AL/GA AND TN IN PROXIMITY TO THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH LINEAR STORM MODE MOST LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 12/18/2013

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