DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090510
SWODY1
SPC AC 090508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THURSDAY. VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY SEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY.

...ARKLATEX REGION...

DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE SRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A SSWLY LLJ
EARLY THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE TOWARD MID-DAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ZONE OF ASCENT SHIFT EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS.

...NWRN TX THROUGH SRN OK...

SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE...AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEPER CONVECTION UNTIL VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT REGIME MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW ELEVATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

..DIAL/COHEN.. 01/09/2014

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