DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090702
SWODY2
SPC AC 090700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A GENERAL
EASTWARD TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH A COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AMPLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS FRIDAY
MORNING. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...THE AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL TX.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EXTENSIVENESS/IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION ARE
UNCERTAIN...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
MODESTLY DESTABILIZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF
NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE. CONTINGENT UPON THIS...MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS. SUCH A RISK COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING
WINDS...A BRIEF TORNADO...AND SEVERE HAIL PENDING A SUFFICIENTLY
FAVORABLE /NON-LINEAR/ CONVECTIVE MODE. REGARDLESS...GIVEN
INSTABILITY UNCERTAINTIES AND THE MODEST MAGNITUDE THEREOF...THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FRI NIGHT...
INLAND CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INLAND-DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. BUT GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS RELATED TO THE EXACT DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
TIMING THEREOF. ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING INLAND PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J PER KG
MLCAPE OR LESS/ AND RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /WITHIN 75-100
MILES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/. WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING DOES OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT /ROUGHLY AT LEAST 64F DEWPOINTS/ AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR-SURFACE
BASED TSTMS IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE REGION.
ACCORDINGLY...A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH.

..GUYER.. 01/09/2014

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