DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080815
SWODY3
SPC AC 080814

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
EXIST OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE AN EASTWARD
TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

...EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...INLAND
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE INTO FRIDAY
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MO VALLEY...WITH THE WARM SECTOR GRADUALLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY/EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/SOUTHERN MS.

GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE EXACT
DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX
AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
INLAND PRECIPITATION...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J
PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/. WHILE LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS AMID WEAK
BUOYANCY...STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD BE
MORE CERTAIN WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /ROUGHLY WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO/. IF/WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL
SRH.

..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

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