DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 081001
SWOD48
SPC AC 081000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE REGIME WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z-BASED ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS ARE IN
COMPARATIVELY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HANDLING OF AN INITIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON DAY 4/SATURDAY
INTO DAY 5/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH GREATER VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH
DEPICTIONS OF A SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE INITIAL/PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON DAY 4/SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A GENERAL CORRIDOR
FROM AL/NORTHERN FL TO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE AMPLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROUGH...THE EXACT DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR IS QUESTIONABLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IS PROBABLE ON DAY 4/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE A 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

AN ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS LIMITED REGARDING THE
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

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