DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230931
SWOD48
SPC AC 230930

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DAYS 4-8 WITH THE
P-N ANOMALY LIKELY TO PERSIST PROMOTING SEVERAL REINFORCING SURGES
OF CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. AND AT TIMES INTO THE GULF.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
AND TRANSITION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME LATER DAY 8-9.

ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SUGGESTING PARTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE
GULF WILL OCCUR MONDAY /DAY 5/ WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING
TO THE 60S OVER THE NRN GULF AND ADVECTING INTO THE FL PENINSULA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITHIN A DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME. INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 4-8 PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 01/23/2014

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