DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110549
SWODY1
SPC AC 110548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL/MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY PHASED WITH A SECOND
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE DIGGING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA AND ACROSS
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NRN HIGH PLAINS...REACHING THE CENTRAL
U.S. LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD/CONTINENTAL AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...BUT HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL BEGIN SPREADING
NWD ACROSS TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES ATOP A COOL SURFACE-BASED
STABLE LAYER. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED/ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION...
AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ADVANCES INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING ASCENT ATOP A DEEP/STABLE SURFACE-BASED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS WEAK /A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG/ ELEVATED CAPE EVOLVES IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL
COOLING.

WITH TIME...EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE RESULT
IN AN EWD SHIFT IN THE ZONE OF CONVECTION...SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN
LA AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN MS AND THE MOBILE BAY
VICINITY OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK/ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SEVERE RISK
APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE INLAND.

..GOSS.. 02/11/2014

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