DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110547
SWODY2
SPC AC 110545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

LOWER MS VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS STRONG
SPEED MAX ROTATES SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...THEN EJECT NEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NCNTRL
GULF ALONG COLD FRONT LATE DAY1...THEN TRACK TOWARD THE FL BIG BEND
BY 13/00Z. DURING THE EVENING HOURS SFC CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE LIFTING NWD NEAR THE OUTER BANKS REGION.

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 60F+ SFC DEW
POINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...HIGHEST VALUES
SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AS CYCLONE INTENSIFIES
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. EVEN SO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN GULF BASIN WHICH SHOULD THEN
TRACK INLAND. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD FAVOR
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EXPECTED TO FOCUS ASCENT ACROSS THE SERN
U.S./MIDDLE ATLANTIC...AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR
MOSTLY THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..DARROW.. 02/11/2014

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