DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230949
SWOD48
SPC AC 230948

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD LARGE-SCALE MODEL-TO-MODEL
CONSISTENCY/SIMILARITY THROUGH VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD...THOUGH
SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO AFFECT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AFTER
DAY 6 /FRI. 2-28/.

UNTIL THEN...THE GENERAL LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW E OF THE ROCKIES...AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW NNWWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/PAC
NW.

AS THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS...THE OVERALL SURFACE REGIME
WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE POLAR AIR/HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF
THE S CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SUPPRESSED WELL
SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEGINS TO RETURN NWD
ACROSS THE TX VICINITY. THIS NWD RETURN OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
BE FACILITATED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLYS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SRN HIGH PLAINS LEE LOW. BY EARLY FRIDAY /THE BEGINNING OF DAY
6/...THE LEE LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MOBILE...SHIFTING EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE WRN RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SAT. /DAY 7/.

ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED/COMPACT WARM SECTOR
MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER...MAJOR QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM REGARDING QUALITY OF
RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF -- WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE HAD
MINIMAL OPPORTUNITY TO MODIFY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING POLAR
HIGH. THUS -- WILL OPT NOT TO INCLUDE A RISK AREA ATTM...BUT THE E
TX/LA/LOWER MS VALLEY VICINITY WILL REQUIRE CONTINUED ATTENTION IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..GOSS.. 02/23/2014

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