MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0149

ACUS11 KWNS 230935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230935
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230935Z - 231200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM SERN LA THROUGH SRN MS...SRN AL INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN GA. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE
CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE NWD WITH TIME WITH MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS NWD
DESTABILIZATION TREND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION ALONG A SWLY LLJ AND BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
AND DESTABILIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS. 30-35 KT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH
THE LOWER HALF OF THE CLOUD LAYER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST CAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29648450 29908670 29848784 29688858 29199063 29939147
31578904 31858678 31018440 29988361 29648450

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