DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100728
SWODY3
SPC AC 100727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

COMPLEX MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS SHOULD
INDUCE SFC CYCLONE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY LATE DAY2 THAT WILL TRACK
ENEWD AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE DELMARVA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SUB 990MB SFC LOW. PER LATEST ECMWF...STRONG 12HR
HEIGHT FALLS WILL FOCUS ACROSS THIS REGION SHARPENING BAROCLINIC
ZONE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DRAWING A MEAGER CORRIDOR OF
MODIFIED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS VA/MD. WHILE FORECAST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION ATTAINING
LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING. WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN FROM THE WEST...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY PROVE INSTRUMENTAL FOR
ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE EXPECTED.

...FL...

LOW LATITUDE DEAMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD EJECT ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN WEAKLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CLOSELY TIED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL TRANSIENT SFC BOUNDARY.

..DARROW.. 03/10/2014

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